Microtrends That Matter 2010
What are microtrends? According to Mark Penn and E. Kinney Zalesne, co-authors of the book "Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes", they're the smaller trends that go unnoticed or even ignored. But even if they impact on just one percent of the population, that can be enough to create new markets for a business, spark a social movement or even produce political change.
So what's ahead for New Zealand in 2010? These are some of the microtrends we're seeing out there:
Recession Rage
We're tired of the economic downturn and fed up with scrimping and saving. We've already cut back on buying takeaway food, eating out in cafes and restaurants, going to shows/events and buying our lunches regularly. Even lattes have become a luxury for more than a third of us. We have to save, but we're only human -- every so often, we're just going to lash out and spend on something, regardless of whether it's rational or not.
Surprising Resilience
Tough times still here in 2010? Okay then, if we've got to survive, we'll get back into home cooking, meal planning and even budgeting. The Americans may be microwaving their way through the economic turmoil but at least we Kiwis still know how to boil water.
Recovery Guilt
When the times are a lot more golden, we're (probably) going to be more frugal, save more -- and absolutely going to look for more bargains. We're totally planning to live more within our means. But (don't tell anyone) two-thirds of us admit there's a possibility we just may go back to our old spending habits.
Prove It
Because consumer confidence worldwide last year took a hit, 2010 will see increased consumer demand for proof – most especially by way of reviews from other consumers. More and more, we'll look for peer validation before we buy almost anything.
Caution: May Contain Puffery
Cynicism rules as consumers become increasingly skeptical about brands' health and nutrition claims. "If it's so healthy, why do they have to try so hard to convince us?"
The Rise and Rise of the Smart Phone
By the end of 2009, NZ smartphone penetration stood at 20%. Expect that to increase in 2010, and the phones to spread more widely beyond the business community as the cellcos compete for mobile market share.
Local Sourcing
Food retailers and eateries will trumpet the local and hyperlocal origins of many of their products, driven by a combination of marketing spin and a genuine desire to offer sustainable values.
The little global crisis that cried WolfWe've now reached saturation point when it comes to media hyperventilation. Bird flu, Swine flu, global warming? Give us a break. Whenever the next pandemic or potential disaster comes along, we won't be nearly so willing to dig into our pockets or follow official instructions.
The New Social-ism
2009 saw a tidal wave of new social networking converts, older and less connected than the earlier adopters. These new arrivals, after acclimatising themselves to platforms such as Facebook, will step up the pace in 2010 and start talking amongst themselves more and more, attracting more of their peers and leading to more and richer connections.
Luxury Lite
The good things in life will become a little more affordable in 2010. Conspicuous consumption is long gone, and even the affluent have fallen on harder times thanks to the GFC ("so un-PC to talk about the Global Financial Crisis, dahling"). We'll make do with the palladium jewellery in 2010, as a sign of solidarity with the nation.
Authenticity Aura
Brand values have suddenly become important. When we consumers have less to spend, we want to invest in things that matter. We may have resisted the Nanny State implications of the last Labour-led Government but we did admire and adopt at least some of the values of the Rod Donald/Jeanette Fitzsimons Green partnership.
Not Quite Live
Television viewing will continue to deliver big ratings in 2010, but it won't necessarily be live. MySky is now in one in five Sky homes; TiVo is slowly rolling out; and most of the popular shows on the free-to-air networks can be watched online. Freed from the tyranny of the televisual timetable, Kiwis will watch more TV, when and where they want.
Housebound
The relentless moving from house to house in search of capital gain has been halted by the collapse of the real estate boom. Suddenly homeowners are feeling trapped. Is this really where they want to live for an indefinite period? Is it time to become "house-proud" residents rather than transient tenants? Once financial stability resumes, expect a mix of renovation therapy and/or "must move at any price" impulse selling.
Attention Deficit Diaspora
Too many distractions, too little time. It's not a new phenomenon, but the pace continues to accelerate. Research suggests that consumers with PVRs (eg MySky, TiVo) fast-forward through commercials to gain more time, not particularly to avoid the ads. To engage the consumer, first catch his or her attention. Not getting any easier.
Family First
As materialism fades and consumers turn back to basics, family and friends become more important. The social networks are becoming increasing enablers, as are services such as Skype that reduce the cost and effort of keeping in touch. Now we can reach out and touch someone ... in realtime.
Comfort
Consumers are looking for safety, simplicity, trust and indulgence, in response to the rising stress and uncertainty of the times. As a result, they tend to gravitate towards either (a) familiar brands from major suppliers; or (b) homegrown offerings with cosy "just-folks-like-us" appeal.
Getting “Off the Grid”
A not-insignificant segment of consumers are looking for ways to become more self sufficient even beyond their spending habits, including household-generated energy, water conservation and purification, self-directed healthcare and private vegetable gardens.
Wandering Eyes
In the best of times, we're brand-loyal. In the worst of times, not so much. You may have won our hearts back in the day, but wallets speak louder than words right now. Dangle an enticing deal in front of us and we're anyone's. Will we be back? Maybe -- depends on the appeal of the low-cost alternative.
He's a Celebrity -- Get Him Out of Here
Too many high-profile celebrity failings mean that consumers are tiring of the cult of celebrity. We still have a few heroes left, but those feet of clay are proving highly contagious amongst those we used to worship.
From Trade-Up to Trade-Off
Key food shopper behaviours in the new economy include advance preparation to determine best value, comparing unit prices, limiting purchases of premium products, and moving to store brands for a better price. Impulse purchases are giving way to planning ahead. Who'd have thought?
SO WHAT?
Why do these Micro Trends matter? Because they will collectively colour the spectacles through which consumers view your offerings in 2010. We recommend that you choose a few of the trends that seem most relevant to your product or service, and ask yourself and your colleagues what the implications are for your operation [we should mention that we're available to facilitate such a session on a project basis].
2010
In the movies (specifically, in the sequel to Arthur C Clarke's "2001: A Space Odyssey") it was known as "the year we make contact". Turns out that it's really "the year we make do".
- Article from Michael Carney's Marketing Week
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